Current Forecasts

Updated March 30, 2020 at 21:52 EDT

Data is shown as circles, dashed lines in all figures indicate the median across 1000 simulations, and grey shaded regions indicate uncertainty bounds. Hover over plots to see data values and interactive menu, and scroll down to see additional plots. Counties included: Wayne (including Detroit), Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, and Livingston.

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Current Summary for SE MI

• The current median across all model simulations for Southeast Michigan gives a forecast of:
  • April 6, 2020 (1 week): roughly 10120 cumulative laboratory-confirmed cases
  • April 20, 2020 (3 weeks): roughly 35700 cumulative laboratory-confirmed cases
• The current median across model simulations projects:
  • April 6, 2020 (1 week): roughly 1000 hospitalized patients (beds needed) with roughly 190 in ICU
  • April 20, 2020 (3 weeks): roughly 3100 hospitalized patients (beds needed) with roughly 610 in ICU

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Note that the model is a work in progress and being updated as the epidemic progresses. Because we are still making improvements and including new data in the model, these results are highly preliminary and uncertain. The forecasts shown here also do not account for the ongoing changes in social distancing.

For more information about the transmission model and methods, please see the ‘About this model’ tab.

1-week forecast of cumulative COVID-19 cases in SE MI

3-week forecast of cumulative COVID-19 deaths in SE MI

3-week forecast of COVID-19 ICU occupancy (i.e. beds needed)

3-week forecast of current COVID-19 patients needing O\(_2\) support

3-week forecast of cumulative COVID-19 cases in SE MI

3-week forecast of COVID-19 hospitalized patients (i.e. beds needed)

3-week forecast of current COVID-19 patients needing ventilators

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